Fertilizer prices have come down from their historic highs following the start of the Iran war; however, the ripple effect of the Middle East conflict compounded with tight supplies will create higher prices and sourcing issues in 2027 and beyond. Availability and affordability concerns have created demand destruction and demand deferral that cloud the fertilizer price outlook for the next few years. Market recovery depends on stabilization in the Middle East, sulfur price trends and shifts in global demand patterns.
Unlike the 2022 fertilizer shock, today’s disruption is rooted less in rerouted trade flows and more in damaged production capacity, raw material constraints and uncertain recovery timelines. That makes this a longer-duration risk for U.S. agricultural retailers, who must secure enough supply for farmers without overcommitting to high-priced inventory if demand weakens. Read more