Donald Trump’s first trade war hurt American soybean farmers to the tune of $11 billion. A sequel is set to be even worse.

The humble bean was the poster child of Trump’s first tariff spat with China, with American shipments to the world’s top buyer of the commodity tumbling 79% in the first two years of his administration. Back then, the Asian nation still needed some American supplies. Now it can simply live off purchases from rival Brazil.

It’s a similar picture for other commodities, with China having diversified its supplies, opening up its market for corn and wheat from Argentina, sorghum from Brazil and cotton from Australia. China’s bins are bursting — at the same time as a slowing economy is hurting domestic demand. Read more